The picture for Saturday week’s Caulfield Guineas (Gr 1, 1600m) may have become a little clearer courtesy of last weekend’s lead-up races but is the suddenly dominant favouritism of Press Statement (Hinchinbrook) an overreaction?
Certainly Press Statement was impressive, running on strongly to win the Stan Fox Stakes (Gr 2, 1500m) at Rosehill by three lengths but he only beat five rivals and the race was set-up for a late closer due to a hectic mid-race pace. Ratings say Press Statement deserves clear favouritism and the TAB now has the Chris Waller-trained colt at $2.40 but there were efforts out of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (Gr 3, 1400m) on the watch that suggest some of those colts and geldings are being underrated.
In the Stan Fox Stakes, Hugh Bowman rode Press Statement confidently easing the colt to settle back in fourth in the six-horse field. The first 300 metres was a reasonable tempo but the pace lifted significantly from the 1200 metre point when the leader Rageese (Street Cry) ran along quite keenly, despite the use of earplugs for the first time to settle him. He ran 200 metre sections of 11.44, 11.84, 11.68, 11.80 and 11.42, which meant Rageese clocked 58.18 for his 1000 metres (from the 1200m to the 200m). Press Statement then joined in, with Hugh Bowman making a perfectly-timed bid and the colt raced away to score easily. Clocked individually, Press Statement ran his final 1000 metres in 57.60, 45.64 (last 800m), 34.14 (last 600m), 22.82 (last 400m) and 11.70 for his final 200 metres. They are excellent closing sectionals especially on the Soft5 track and Press Statement certainly looks to be peaking for the Caulfield Guineas.
Timeform now have Press Statement rated at 119+, next best rated colt in Caulfield Guineas markets being Dal Cielo (Per Incanto) at 112+ and Bon Aurum (Bon Hoffa) on 112 with Ready For Victory (More Than Ready) rating 110. So Press Statement has a seven pounds advantage over his nearest rivals according to the Timeform ratings and it will be interesting to compare the eventual result with the clock, suggesting that second and third out of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude staged underrated performances.
There was a fast early pace in that race with the New Zealand colt Dal Cielo working hard to hold out a number of early challengers. That resulted in Dal Cielo clocking very fast mid-race sectionals, his 200 metre breakdown (from the 1000m) being 10.96, 11.45, 11.78, 11.78 and 12.40. Dal Cielo therefore clocked 44.50 for his 800 metres (from the 1000m to the 200m) and he did exceptionally well, only being run down nearing the post with Bon Aurum winning by a half-neck from Tulsa (Sebring) with Dal Cielo finishing only a half head further back in third place. The Murray Baker-trained colt, who also carried top weight of 57kg, was having only his second run since winning the Diamond Stakes (Gr 1, 1200m) at Ellerslie in March and with a more economical trip in the Caulfield Guineas, Dal Cielo ($8 with the TAB) could prove hard to beat.
The eventual winner of the Guineas Prelude, Bon Aurum, ran on strongly with a well-timed run from tenth at the home turn and he clocked good closing sectionals of 57.64 (last 1000m), 46.65 (last 800m), 35.03 (last 600m) and 23.48 for his final 200 metres. But the fastest closing sectional times in the race were recorded by the Mike Moroney-trained Tulsa, who had gone back to last in the 16-horse field from his outside barrier before running on strongly for second. Tulsa was timed to run his last 1000 metres in 56.90, 45.92 (last 800m), 34.52 (last 600m) and 23.10 (last 400m), clearly the fastest closing times for those sections in the race.
